Earth’s Cryosphere, 2010, Vol. XIV, No. 1, p. 3-12
ACTUAL ASPECTS OF MODELING AND PREDICTION OF THE PERMAFROST THERMAL STATE UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE CONDITIONS
A.V. Pavlov, G.Z. Perlstein*, G.S. Tipenko*
Earth Cryosphere Institute SB RAS, 625000, Tyumen, P/O box 1230, Russia
*Institute of Environmental Geosciences, RAS, 101000, Moscow, Ulansky per., 13, build. 2, P/O box 145, Russia, cryo2@yandex.ru
Significant discrepancies between different estimations of permafrost response to the climate changes pose new requirements on an improvement of procedures of quantitative geocryological prediction. Presented work substantiates the necessity of taking into account not only the air temperature, but the total set of the basic climatic regional characteristics as well. Numerical modeling has been performed with observance of this rule. It shows that permafrost is much more resistant to the global warming than it was accepted till now. In Yakutsk even at a high rate of climate warming (0.08 °С/year) the average annual temperature of the ground surface becomes positive after 50 years only. At moderate scenario of climate changes the frozen ground temperature in 2050 will rise only by 0.5 °С. The difference between the temperatures of the air and the ground depends upon climate type and may change widely in the process of general warming. The ways for verification of models are suggested in the case of imperfect initial information. The important goal of future investigations is developing new models of ground freezing–thawing, based on the combination of stochastic and deterministic methods.
Key words: Thermal state of permafrost, contemporary climate changes, air and soil temperature, numerical modeling, non-temperature factors of external heat exchange, landscape conditions.