Earth’s Cryosphere, 2011, Vol. XV, No.1, p. 80-90
CHANGES OF THE CLIMATE AND SOIL TEMPERATURE CONDITIONS IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE 20TH AND EARLY 21ST CENTURY, LAKE BAIKAL
L.Т. Miach, L.I. Boltneva, B.G. Sherstyukov*
Institute of Global Climate and Ecology of Roshydromet and RAS, 107258, Моscow, Glebovskya str., 20b, Russia, uanohin@rambler.ru
*All-Russian Research Institute of Hydrometeorological Information – World Data Centre of Roshydromet,
249020, Kaluga reg., Obninsk, Koroleva str., 6, Russia, boris@meteo.ru
Тhe dynamics of the 1961–2007 time series of annual and seasonal averages of air temperature, precipitation, snow cover depth, and soil temperature at depths of 80 and 160 cm for the Baikal region are analyzed. A certain decrease in the air and soil temperature trends is clearly observed in the dynamics of the time series in late 1990s and early 2000s due to the cycle of relative air temperature fall. However, later in 2000s the trend of rise of these temperatures is observed again. For the specified period the mean-annual linear trend factors appeared on the average to be 0.042 °С/year and 0.039 °C/year for air and soil temperature at the depth of 160 cm, respectively. The air and soil temperature tend to increase more rapidly during the warm periods than during the cold ones. A tendency towards an increase in precipitation and snow cover depth is also observed. The periods of maximum instability of air and soil temperature have been determined by the analysis of their 20-year moving averages and standard deviations. Using several scenarios of climate change, the predictive estimates of the air and soil temperatures are reсeived up to 2025.
Key words: Baikal region, soil temperature, time series, trends, instability, prognostic estimates.