Earth’s Cryosphere, 2012, Vol. XVI, No.2, p. 52-59

SIMULATION OF THE REGIONAL FEATURES OF THE SEASONAL THAWING LAYER IN THE SIBERIAN PERMAFROST ZONE

I.M. Shkolnik, E.D. Nadyozhina, T.V. Pavlova, E.I. Khlebnikova, A.A. Semioshina, E.K. Molkentin, E.N. Stafeeva

Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory, 194021, St.-Petersburg, Karbysheva str., 7, Russia; igor@main.mgo.rssi.ru

The future projections of seasonal thawing layer depth in the permafrost regions of Siberia are analysed. The experiments have been conducted using ensemble climate simulations provided by Main geophysical observatory Regional Climate Model. Accordingly, the ensemble approach has been used to simulate the changes in thermal state of permafrost. The influence of forest vegetation on seasonal thaw layer evolution has been evaluated. It has been demonstrated that the anthropogenic warming signal in the seasonal thaw layer depth change is not discernible above natural climate variability in the late 20th century, while in the mid – 21st century it can be estimated at a reasonable level of confidence over the most part of Siberian territory.

Key words: Permafrost, climate, simulation, evolution.

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