Earth’s Cryosphere, 2017, Vol. XXI, No. 2, p. 3-9
RUSSIAN PERMAFROST IN THE 21ST CENTURY: MODEL-BASED PROJECTIONS AND ANALYSIS OF UNCERTAINTIES
O.A. Anisimov, V.A. Kokorev
State Hydrological Institute, 23, Second Line V.O., St. Petersburg, 199053, Russia; oleg@oa7661.spb.edu
The authors study model-based active layer thickness in permafrost regions of European and Asian Russia in terms of sensitivity to variations in its key controls: air temperature, snow depth, and vegetation patterns. The model has been used to estimate current changes of active layer thickness between two periods of 1961–1990 and 2004–2013. The calculations were performed using a scenario of coupled climatic and vegetation changes till the mid-21st century, with regard to input data uncertainty. According to the modeling results, the greatest permafrost loss relative to the mean of 1961–1990 (30±14 cm) by the middle of the 21st century can be expected in the industrially developed Yamal-Nenets district of north-western Siberia. Over most of the East Siberian permafrost regions, the projected changes to the active layer thickness are 20 ± 10 cm.
Permafrost regions, modeling, active layer thickness, variability, stochastic projection