Earth’s Cryosphere, 2018, Vol. XXII, No. 1, p. 51-62
RAPID REGENERATION OF THE KOLKA GLACIER (CAUCASUS) AFTER THE 2002 GLACIAL DISASTER
D.A. Petrakov1, K.A. Aristov1, A.A. Aleynikov2, E.S. Boyko3,4, V.N. Drobyshev5, N.V. Kovalenko1, O.V. Tutubalina1, S.S. Chernomorets1
1 Lomonosov Moscow State University, Faculty of Geography, 1, Leninskie Gory, Moscow, 119991, Russia; dpetrakov@gmail.com
2 Group of Companies “SCANEX”, 1, Kiev highway, 8 entrance, office 732, Business Park “Rumyantsevo”, Moscow, 108811, Russia
3 CJSC “SevKavTISIZ”, 35/1, Zakharov str., Krasnodar, 350007, Russia
4 Kuban State University, 149, Stavropolskaya str., Krasnodar, 350040, Russia
5 Vladikavkaz Scientific Center of the RAS and the Government of the Republic of North Ossetia–Alania, 22, Markus str., Vladikavkaz, 362027, Russia
We have analysed changes in the Kolka Glacier cirque and in the Karmadon Depression after the glacial disaster of September 20, 2002 in the Republic of North Ossetia–Alania (Russia). We have estimated the rates of Kolka Glacier regeneration and the rates of the ice dam decay in the Karmadon Depression, on the basis of the field observations of 2002–2016, the topographical surveys of 2000–2004, 2009 and 2014, and analysis of digital elevation models generated from satellite image stereo pairs (Terra ASTER of 2002 and 2004; and SPOT-6 of 2014). The combination of four methods used in 2014 to survey the surface of the Kolka Glacier has helped to clarify the rate of regeneration of the glacier in the past and provides a reliable benchmark for the future. Remote and terrestrial survey methods have demonstrated good agreement. We established that in 2002–2014 about (40 ± 11) million m3 of ice accumulated in the Kolka Glacier cirque, which is about 40 % of the volume of this glacier before the collapse in 2002. The forecast slowdown of the glacier mass recruitment is not yet happening: in 2009–2014 as much ice has accumulated in the cirque, as in 2004–2009. The regeneration of the Kolka Glacier comes amid adverse weather conditions for glaciation of the Caucasus, and in sharp contrast with the behaviour of other Caucasian glaciers experiencing rapid decline. The volume of the ice dam in the Karmadon Depression decreased by 75 % in 2002–2014. The progressive decrease in the melting rate, which we noted before, continued in 2009–2014. In comparison with the first year after the disaster, the rate of melting decreased by almost a factor of 50. In the following ten years, the repetition of events similar to the disaster in 2002 is unlikely, but by 2025 the Kolka Glacier can accumulate 60–70 % of its pre-disaster volume. It is necessary to continue monitoring the regeneration of the glacier and to measure the volume of accumulated ice every 5–10 years.
Kolka Glacier, glacial disaster, the Caucasus, glacier regeneration, digital elevation models