OPERATION OF THERMOSYPHONS BENEATH AN OIL TANK AT THE VARANDEY FIELD: PREDICTION BY STOCHASTIC ANALYSIS
V.P. Melnikov1–3, G.V. Anikin3, K.A. Spasennikova3
1Tyumen State University, 6, Volodarskogo str., Tyumen, 625003, Russia; melnikov@ikz.ru
2Tyumen Industrial University, 38, Volodarskogo str., Tyumen, 625000, Russia
3Earth Cryosphere Institute, Tyumen Scientific Centre SB RAS, 86, Malygina str., Tyumen,
625000, Russia; anikin@ikz.ru, kspasennikova@gmail.com
The results of 3D simulation are compared, for the first time, with logged ground temperatures in permafrost which is stabilized by low-angle inclined thermosyphons beneath a hot oil tank at the Varandey oil field. Temperature variations beneath the oil tank are predicted by stochastic analysis using the calculated heat loss from the finned surface of thermosyphons. The estimated probability of finding unfrozen soil in presumably frozen areas in the vicinities of two logged boreholes parallel and perpendicular to the tank bottom is about ~4 %. The predicted temperature distribution agrees well with the measured data.
Temperature field, permafrost, thermosyphon, stochastic prediction, Stefan problem