Earth’s Cryosphere, 2020, vol. XXIV, No. 3, pp. 34-45
10.21782/EC2541-9994-2020-3(34-45)

EVALUATION OF THE EFFECT OF INSOLATION FACTOR ON SEA ICE EXTENT VARIABILITY IN THE RUSSIAN ARCTIC

V.M. Fedorov, P.B. Grebennikov, D.M. Frolov

Lomonosov Moscow State University, Faculty of Geography, 1, Leninskie Gory, Moscow, 119991, Russia; fedorov.msu@mail.ru

Application of the correlation and regression analysis which enabled evaluation of the role of insolation factor in seasonal, interannual, long-term variations (both region-specific and common for the Russian Arctic) of sea ice extent during the period of satellite observations (1979–2018) is discussed. The revealed correlation between multiyear variations of average annual and monthly values of sea ice area and multiyear variations of insolation contrast decreases with increasing spatial scale. The annual course is marked by a more stable and close relationship between seasonal variations in sea ice extent and in insolation (phase-shifted by three months to the past). The annual variations of the phase shifted insolation also have a close connection with the seasonal variability amplitude of interannual variation of sea ice extent, with distribution of the coefficient of determination in regression models, and with seasonal variations in sea ice extent decline. The seas in the central Russian Arctic (Kara Sea, Laptev Sea and East Siberian Sea) are interpreted as the most conservative in their response to the insolation factor, while the most pronounced response to variations of insolation and insolation contrast are reported from the marginal seas (Barents Sea and Chukchi Sea). The patterns of response to the insolation factor also differ considerably for these regions.

Key words: Russian Arctic seas, sea ice extent, annual, interannual and multiyear variations, insolation, insolation contrast, correlation and regression analysis


Please cite as:

Fedorov V.M., Grebennikov P.B., Frolov D.M. Evaluation of the effect of insolation factor on sea ice extent variability in the Russian Arctic. Earth’s Cryosphere, 2020, vol. XXIV, No. 3, pp.34-45. DOI: 10.21782/EC2541-9994-2020-3(34-45)