Earth’s Cryosphere, 2022, Vol. XXVI, No. 3, p. 43-53.
SNOW COVER AND GLACIERS
MODELING OF DEBRIS FLOW TRIGGERED BY SNOW MELTING: CASE STUDY OF THE BARSEMDARA RIVER, TAJIKISTAN
V.A. Iudina (Kurovskaia)1,*, S.S. Chernomorets1, T.A. Vinogradova2, I.N. Krylenko1,3
1 Lomonosov Moscow State University, Faculty of Geography, Leninskie gory 1, Moscow, 119991 Russia
2 Research and Production Association Gidrotekhproekt LLC, ul. Oktyabrskaya 55A, Valdai, Novgorod oblast, 175400 Russia
3 Water Problems Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences, ul. Gubkina 3, Moscow, 119333 Russia
*Corresponding author; e-mail: viktoriiakurovskaia@gmail.com
One of the latest catastrophic debris flow disasters took place in the Barsemdara River valley (Tajikistan) in 2015. The aim of this study was to apply chain modeling to consider the characteristics of this debris flow. This approach was also applied to assess potential flood-prone zones for future debris flows. To consider the characteristics of debris flow in the source, the transport-shift model developed by Yu.B. Vinogradov was applied. Based on this model, debris flow hydrographs were obtained and used as input data for valley zoning based on the FLO-2D model. So, for scenario I, the debris flow discharge of the forward wave (maximum 1630 m3/s) was used as the input hydrograph; for scenario II, the debris flow discharge at the source outlet (maximum 650 m3/s) was used. The digital elevation model ALOS PALSAR (12.5 m) was used as the relief data. As there were no rheological data, the modeling was carried out using several sets of parameters. The simulated debris flow discharges based on the most realistic option for scenario I varied from 1494 to 2860 m3/s for individual waves. Additionally, the authors carried out modeling using digital elevation model from an unmanned aerial vehicle obtained during the survey in 2019. The results showed that the considered approach makes it possible to estimate the boundaries of both actual and potential flood-prone zones.
Keywords: debris flow, Barsemdara River, transport-shift debris flow formation model, FLO-2D model, Pamir Mountains
Recommended citation: Iudina (Kurovskaia) V.A., Chernomorets S.S., Vinogradova T.A., Krylenko I.N., 2022. Modeling of debris flow triggered by snow melting: case study of the Barsemdara River, Tajikistan. Earth’s Cryosphere, XXVI (3), 43–53.