Earth’s Cryosphere, 2021, vol. XXV, No. 1, pp. 40–47

MODELING THE WAYS OF THE MORPHOLOGICAL PATTERN DEVELOPMENT FOR THERMOKARST PLAINS WITH FLUVIAL EROSION

A.S. Victorov, T.V. Orlov, V.N. Kapralova, O.N. Trapeznikova

Sergeev Institute of Environmental Geoscience, Russian Academy of Sciences,
Ulansky lane 13, buld. 2, Moscow, 101000, Russia; [nospam]vic_as@mail.ru[/nospam]

The research deals with four diff erent hypotheses on the development of thermokarst plains with fl uvial erosion based on the mathematical modeling of their morphological pattern. The models result from the mathematical morphology of landscapes, which broadly uses the random processes theory. The analysis revealed that each way of the development is characterized by a specifi c probabilistic distribution of sizes, areas of thermokarst lakes fi rst of all. The empirical testing was done for 17 key sites with diff erent environmental and permafrost conditions in Western and Eastern Siberia, and Canada. Our analysis revealed that in the majority of cases the areas of the thermokarst lakes within the homogenous sections of the thermokarst plains with fl uvial erosion obey the integral exponential distribution. Hence, the model of the morphological pattern corresponding to the asynchronous start of thermokarst process is valid, and the increase in the size of the lakes is proportional to the heat loss density through the side surface. Thus, the morphological pattern of the vast areas of thermokarst plains with fl uvial erosion is in a state of dynamic equilibrium, which should be taken into account when predicting its development and assessing natural risks.

Key words: mathematical morphology of the landscapes, thermokarst plains with fluvial erosion, morphological pattern