Earth’s Cryosphere, 2024, Vol. XXVIII, No. 4, p. 3-13.
GEOCRYOLOGICAL MONITORING AND FORECAST
CARTOGRAPHIC VISUALIZATION OF THE EXPECTED CHANGE IN THE SOUTHERN PERMAFROST LIMIT IN WESTERN SIBERIA
N.M. Berdnikov
Earth Cryosphere Institute, Tyumen Scientific Center, Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Malygina St. 86, Tyumen, 625026 Russia
*Corresponding author; e-mail: nikolaj-berdnikov@yandex.ru
In the era of modern climate change, permafrost degradation takes place in Western Siberia. It is manifested by an increase in permafrost temperature, a decrease in the permafrost area, and a reduction in the thickness of frozen layers. To establish the rate of reduction in the area of permafrost distribution, a cartographic model predicting the change in the position of its southern boundary by the middle of the 21st century was created. Taking into account temperature, ice content, rock composition, and structure of the section, southern areas of permafrost in Western Siberia were ranked according to the order of the long-term thawing of the upper 10-meter-thick permafrost section. It was found that the expected change in the southern permafrost limit in Western Siberia will be uneven and dependent on local conditions related to the cryolithogenic characteristics of the landscape.
Keywords: southern permafrost limit, cartographic model, climate change, permafrost degradation from the surface, annual temperature fluctuations layer.
Recommended citation: Berdnikov N.M., 2024. Cartographic visualization of the expected change in the southern permafrost limit in Western Siberia. Earth’s Cryosphere XXVIII (4), 3–13.
Received May 18, 2023
Revised December 11, 2023
Accepted January 15, 2024
Translated by E. Shelekhova